Politics
The Iranian Mentality in Decision-Making and Negotiation Management
World News
Major General Dhurgham Zuhair Fakhri
USPA NEWS -
Decision-making in Iran follows a fully rational approach that is not influenced by grandiose slogans, speeches, or unrealistic goals. When an Iranian politician sets a goal, it must be realistic and achievable rather than an illusionary or unattainable aspiration. Once a goal is determined, the Iranian decision-maker carefully selects the method to achieve it, developing a comprehensive plan based on a well-studied agenda that ensures the goal's realization with precision.
After this, Iran’s media apparatus begins broadcasting revolutionary and religious rhetoric, announcing larger-than-intended objectives to confuse regional and global public opinion, elevate its demands, and create bargaining leverage. It then employs pragmatic tools such as procrastination, delay tactics, and testing opponents through negotiations before ultimately returning to rationality. At this stage, Iran strategically resolves issues in a practical and calculated manner, securing the maximum possible gains without compromising its national and strategic interests—all in line with the vision of the Supreme Leader.
Decision-Making Mechanism in Iran's Power Structure
Iran's decision-making mechanism operates within a complex political structure that combines religious governance (Velayat-e Faqih) with a republican-democratic system. While power is distributed among multiple institutions, ultimate authority is concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader.
Iran's decision-making mechanism operates within a complex political structure that combines religious governance (Velayat-e Faqih) with a republican-democratic system. While power is distributed among multiple institutions, ultimate authority is concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader.
The Decision-Making Process in Iran:
The Supreme Leader (Commander-in-Chief)
*The head of state and the most powerful political figure in Iran, possessing extensive authority over the military, media, foreign policy, and judiciary.
*Controls general policies through the Expediency Discernment Council, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and major economic institutions.
*Has the power to veto presidential and parliamentary decisions if they contradict his strategic vision.
The Guardian Council
*Consists of 12 members (six jurists appointed by the Supreme Leader and six legal experts selected by Parliament from a list provided by the judiciary).
*Reviews laws passed by Parliament to ensure their compliance with the constitution and Islamic law.
*Supervises elections and determines candidates' eligibility for high political positions.
The Supreme Leader (Commander-in-Chief)
*The head of state and the most powerful political figure in Iran, possessing extensive authority over the military, media, foreign policy, and judiciary.
*Controls general policies through the Expediency Discernment Council, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and major economic institutions.
*Has the power to veto presidential and parliamentary decisions if they contradict his strategic vision.
The Guardian Council
*Consists of 12 members (six jurists appointed by the Supreme Leader and six legal experts selected by Parliament from a list provided by the judiciary).
*Reviews laws passed by Parliament to ensure their compliance with the constitution and Islamic law.
*Supervises elections and determines candidates' eligibility for high political positions.
The President and the Government
*The President is elected by popular vote through a democratic process but does not wield absolute power.
*Heads the Council of Ministers but must obtain parliamentary and Supreme Leader approval for major policies.
*Implements executive policies, but their execution depends on IRGC support and religious institutions' endorsement.
The Parliament (Islamic Consultative Assembly)
*Elected directly by the people and holds legislative powers but is subject to the Guardian Council’s oversight.
*Can question the President and ministers but cannot alter strategic policies without the Supreme Leader’s approval.
*The President is elected by popular vote through a democratic process but does not wield absolute power.
*Heads the Council of Ministers but must obtain parliamentary and Supreme Leader approval for major policies.
*Implements executive policies, but their execution depends on IRGC support and religious institutions' endorsement.
The Parliament (Islamic Consultative Assembly)
*Elected directly by the people and holds legislative powers but is subject to the Guardian Council’s oversight.
*Can question the President and ministers but cannot alter strategic policies without the Supreme Leader’s approval.
The Expediency Discernment Council
*An advisory body that resolves disputes between Parliament and the Guardian Council.
*Provides counsel to the Supreme Leader on general policies.
*Led by an appointee of the Supreme Leader, typically a seasoned political figure.
The IRGC and Security Institutions
*Plays a key role in politics and the economy, acting as the Supreme Leader's enforcer.
*Holds influence over security and military sectors, making it a crucial player in strategic decision-making.
*An advisory body that resolves disputes between Parliament and the Guardian Council.
*Provides counsel to the Supreme Leader on general policies.
*Led by an appointee of the Supreme Leader, typically a seasoned political figure.
The IRGC and Security Institutions
*Plays a key role in politics and the economy, acting as the Supreme Leader's enforcer.
*Holds influence over security and military sectors, making it a crucial player in strategic decision-making.
The Actual Decision-Making Process
*The Supreme Leader determines general policies (foreign policy, strategic issues, security).
*The government proposes executive policies, but their implementation requires religious and military institutions' approval.
*Parliament ratifies laws, but the Guardian Council can reject them if they contradict Islamic law or the constitution.
*In case of disputes, the Expediency Discernment Council intervenes to resolve them.
*The IRGC influences policy execution, particularly in security and economic matters.
How Iran Sets Its Goals
Iran employs a complex institutional process for setting its strategic and tactical objectives, integrating political, security, economic, and ideological considerations. While multiple entities participate in decision-making, the final say always rests with the Supreme Leader.
*The Supreme Leader determines general policies (foreign policy, strategic issues, security).
*The government proposes executive policies, but their implementation requires religious and military institutions' approval.
*Parliament ratifies laws, but the Guardian Council can reject them if they contradict Islamic law or the constitution.
*In case of disputes, the Expediency Discernment Council intervenes to resolve them.
*The IRGC influences policy execution, particularly in security and economic matters.
How Iran Sets Its Goals
Iran employs a complex institutional process for setting its strategic and tactical objectives, integrating political, security, economic, and ideological considerations. While multiple entities participate in decision-making, the final say always rests with the Supreme Leader.
1. Defining Long-Term Strategic Goals
These goals are set at the highest leadership level and include:
A. The Supreme Leader’s Vision
*The Supreme Leader defines the country's general direction and overarching strategic vision.
*Establishes “red lines” that cannot be crossed in any negotiations or internal/external policies.
*Seeks guidance from advisory bodies such as the Expediency Discernment Council and the IRGC to shape strategies.
B. Major Strategic Objectives
*Ensuring regime survival: The primary goal is protecting the political system from any internal or external threats.
*Expanding regional influence: Supporting allied groups (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias) and maintaining a presence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
*Achieving economic independence: Reducing reliance on Western economies, developing defense industries, and advancing nuclear energy.
*Countering international pressures: Navigating sanctions and diplomatic isolation through economic strategies like "resistance economy" and strengthening ties with China, Russia, and North Korea.
These goals are set at the highest leadership level and include:
A. The Supreme Leader’s Vision
*The Supreme Leader defines the country's general direction and overarching strategic vision.
*Establishes “red lines” that cannot be crossed in any negotiations or internal/external policies.
*Seeks guidance from advisory bodies such as the Expediency Discernment Council and the IRGC to shape strategies.
B. Major Strategic Objectives
*Ensuring regime survival: The primary goal is protecting the political system from any internal or external threats.
*Expanding regional influence: Supporting allied groups (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias) and maintaining a presence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
*Achieving economic independence: Reducing reliance on Western economies, developing defense industries, and advancing nuclear energy.
*Countering international pressures: Navigating sanctions and diplomatic isolation through economic strategies like "resistance economy" and strengthening ties with China, Russia, and North Korea.
2. Defining Medium- and Short-Term Objectives
These objectives are determined based on the political climate and emerging challenges through key entities:
A. The National Security Council
*Develops national security strategies based on current threats and global developments.
*Prioritizes tactical objectives such as nuclear negotiations or economic sanctions management.
B. The IRGC
*Focuses on military and security goals, such as developing ballistic missiles and drones and expanding regional operations.
*Manages an extensive economic network, influencing economic policies within Iran and its allied nations.
*Oversees regional influence through indirect operations, including funding and arming allied militias.
C. The Government and Parliament
*Drafts developmental and economic plans, such as five-year development strategies.
*May propose negotiations or diplomatic engagement.
*Parliament debates legislation, but any law conflicting with strategic objectives can be rejected by the Guardian Council.
These objectives are determined based on the political climate and emerging challenges through key entities:
A. The National Security Council
*Develops national security strategies based on current threats and global developments.
*Prioritizes tactical objectives such as nuclear negotiations or economic sanctions management.
B. The IRGC
*Focuses on military and security goals, such as developing ballistic missiles and drones and expanding regional operations.
*Manages an extensive economic network, influencing economic policies within Iran and its allied nations.
*Oversees regional influence through indirect operations, including funding and arming allied militias.
C. The Government and Parliament
*Drafts developmental and economic plans, such as five-year development strategies.
*May propose negotiations or diplomatic engagement.
*Parliament debates legislation, but any law conflicting with strategic objectives can be rejected by the Guardian Council.
How Iran Determines Gains in Negotiations and Crises
Iran’s approach to negotiations and crisis management is pragmatic and follows:
A. Continuous Situation Assessment
*Leverages intelligence agencies to monitor global and regional developments.
*Gauges internal cohesion and public sentiment before making major decisions.
*Observes reactions from major powers (U.S., China, Russia, and Europe).
B. Maximizing Bargaining Leverage
*Avoids offering free concessions, negotiating gradually for maximum gains.
*If forced to concede in one area, compensates by securing advantages elsewhere.
*Employs delay tactics, buying time, and applying gradual pressure to push the other side into offering solutions.
C. Testing Reactions
*Undertakes calculated escalatory moves (e.g., increasing uranium enrichment) to assess responses.
*If met with weak reactions, escalation continues; if faced with strong international pressure, Iran re-engages in negotiations from a position of strength.
D. Adhering to Red Lines
*Certain issues remain non-negotiable (e.g., sovereignty and national security).
*Iran may offer tactical or regional concessions while preserving its long-term strategy.
Iran’s approach to negotiations and crisis management is pragmatic and follows:
A. Continuous Situation Assessment
*Leverages intelligence agencies to monitor global and regional developments.
*Gauges internal cohesion and public sentiment before making major decisions.
*Observes reactions from major powers (U.S., China, Russia, and Europe).
B. Maximizing Bargaining Leverage
*Avoids offering free concessions, negotiating gradually for maximum gains.
*If forced to concede in one area, compensates by securing advantages elsewhere.
*Employs delay tactics, buying time, and applying gradual pressure to push the other side into offering solutions.
C. Testing Reactions
*Undertakes calculated escalatory moves (e.g., increasing uranium enrichment) to assess responses.
*If met with weak reactions, escalation continues; if faced with strong international pressure, Iran re-engages in negotiations from a position of strength.
D. Adhering to Red Lines
*Certain issues remain non-negotiable (e.g., sovereignty and national security).
*Iran may offer tactical or regional concessions while preserving its long-term strategy.
Conclusion
Iran’s negotiation and crisis management strategy follows the “Carpet Weaver’s Theory”—a method based on patience, maneuverability, and flexibility while avoiding fundamental concessions.
Like a carpet weaver who does not complete his work until he reaches the perfect result, Iran does not rush into agreements. Instead, it waits for the best possible deal that maximizes gains with minimal losses.
Key Tactics of the Carpet Weaver’s Theory:
*Patience: Waiting for the right moment before making concessions.
*Slow Negotiation: Exhausting opponents until they become more willing to compromise.
*Keeping Some Cards Hidden: Revealing surprises only at critical moments.
*Exploiting Opponent Divisions: Leveraging conflicts among major powers to Iran’s advantage.
*Tactical Flexibility with Strategic Consistency: Adjusting tactics without changing core objectives.
Ultimately, all strategic decisions remain in the hands of the Supreme Leader, who holds the final say in every major issue.
Iran’s negotiation and crisis management strategy follows the “Carpet Weaver’s Theory”—a method based on patience, maneuverability, and flexibility while avoiding fundamental concessions.
Like a carpet weaver who does not complete his work until he reaches the perfect result, Iran does not rush into agreements. Instead, it waits for the best possible deal that maximizes gains with minimal losses.
Key Tactics of the Carpet Weaver’s Theory:
*Patience: Waiting for the right moment before making concessions.
*Slow Negotiation: Exhausting opponents until they become more willing to compromise.
*Keeping Some Cards Hidden: Revealing surprises only at critical moments.
*Exploiting Opponent Divisions: Leveraging conflicts among major powers to Iran’s advantage.
*Tactical Flexibility with Strategic Consistency: Adjusting tactics without changing core objectives.
Ultimately, all strategic decisions remain in the hands of the Supreme Leader, who holds the final say in every major issue.
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